Cocoa supply chain supply chain chokepoints

category tradeable chokepoint

How scores are shown

Criticality comes from the trace model and describes the node's dependency importance.

Evidence comes from the canonical Vein Graph: AI assertions, user corrections, and external sources.

Completeness is a data-coverage label based on available summary, evidence, sources, tickers, and chokepoint rationale.

Dynamic claims are capped below 100% and AI-only edges remain labeled as inferred. Model: trace-score-v1.

Ivory Coast & Ghana farms90% confidence — Two countries supply roughly 60% of beans; crop disease or farmer payments disrupt global grind.

Grinding & butter/powder split90% confidence — Grinder capacity and financing of bean inventories drive futures backwardation spikes.

Cocoa supply chainAgriculture

Farmgate beans through grinding to cocoa butter, powder, and chocolate.

Criticality: unknownEvidence: UnverifiedCompleteness: thin

Ivory Coast & Ghana farmsFarming⚠ chokepoint

Smallholder cocoa with aging trees and cadmium/soil quality issues.

Two countries supply roughly 60% of beans; crop disease or farmer payments disrupt global grind.90% confidence

Criticality: highEvidence: UnverifiedCompleteness: partial

Fermentation & drying cooperativesProcessingmedium criticality

Quality fermentation determining bean premium and export acceptance.

Criticality: mediumEvidence: UnverifiedCompleteness: thin

— core tradeable element

Grinding & butter/powder splitProcessing⚠ chokepoint

Amsterdam and West African grinders producing butter and powder ratios.

Grinder capacity and financing of bean inventories drive futures backwardation spikes.90% confidence

Criticality: highEvidence: UnverifiedCompleteness: partial

— core tradeable element

Confectionery manufacturersFoodmedium criticality

Chocolate makers hedging bean costs and reformulating during shortages.

HSY—Hersheystock

ProducerDepends on this nodeSupply-chain context only — not investment advice.

Criticality: mediumEvidence: UnverifiedCompleteness: partial

— core tradeable element

Containerized bean exportsLogisticsmedium criticality

Abidjan and Tema port flows to European grinders.

Criticality: mediumEvidence: UnverifiedCompleteness: thin

— core tradeable element

Generated analysis — not investment advice.

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